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七月美联储降息不对市场有什么影响

www.sytfyd.com2019-07-24

7月5日,美联储发布半年度货币政策报告。对于经济形势,美联储认为第一季度的经济增长强劲,但最近有迹象显示经济放缓。然而,这种放缓主要是由于中美贸易摩擦之间的冲突,中国和欧洲的经济衰退对全球经济造成了拖累。刚刚发布的美国非农就业数据超出预期,证实美国经济仍然强劲有力,美联储降息的紧迫性已经下降。

今年前五个月,非农业就业人数平均每月增加165,000人,比2018年的平均223,000人减少。今年头四个月,空缺率和就业岗位私营部门职位的比率接近历史最高水平,表明工人对获得新工作更有信心。美国强劲的就业环境与中国的就业压力形成鲜明对比,表明美国经济只是受到外部冲击的影响,而内部增长依然强劲。

可能,老师认为美联储7月份降息的概率约为60%,这并不像市场预期的那样高达90%-100%。虽然特朗普政府继续对美联储施加压力,但由于美国的政治体制,美联储拥有非常独立的决策权,美联储可能不会屈服。从经济基本面来看,虽然美国通胀已经减弱,但更多是由外部干预因素引起的。良好的就业形势仍将为美国消费市场提供足够的支撑,美联储并不急于降息。

除经济数据外,美联储决策的影响也是美股的位置,这也可能是美联储货币政策的制约因素。美国强劲而历史性的高位增加了美联储对恢复释水造成的资产泡沫的担忧。因此,强势美股的表现也将降低美联储7月份降息的可能性。

Of course, the Fed still has a high probability of cutting interest rates this year, but it is likely to be in September or December. The Fed will wait until the US economic data becomes more apparently weaker, and when the demand slows down, it will release the loose signal. At present, it will take at least a few months for the Fed to observe.

So, if the Fed can't cut interest rates in July, what impact will it have on the market?

First: Unfriendly to non-Americans, the US will not cut interest rates will make global currency flows unable to spread on a large scale, which is not conducive to the bottoming out of non-US economies

Second: If the United States does not cut interest rates, the probability of China's interest rate cut will also cut interest rates. Of course, interest rate cuts will have a major positive impact on China’s economy and increase the bottom line of the economy. The interest rate will not fall, and the economy will continue to weaken.

Third: the expectations given by the previous market are too high, which may lead to expectations falling and falling.

Fourth: continue to drive down the market's risk appetite, the market's trading activity continues to decline, and the money-making effect will be scarce

The world is waiting for the Fed to save, and this time the United States itself has no crisis, so the Fed will definitely be cautious this time, and will drag on for a long time. Usually, after the economy continues to deteriorate to a certain extent, it will be rescued, just to prevent the crisis from spreading to the United States.

Therefore, the current problem of China's stock market is not external but internal. The Fed's interest rate cut will allow the central bank's monetary policy to continue to open up space, but the real reform measures will still be seen. Then, the next Politburo meeting to be held will replace the Fed’s interest rate resolution as the biggest event of the month and will directly determine the trend of the market in 2019.

Continue to maintain the original judgment: bearish the July market, it is expected to start to rebound into the trend rebound market on 7.29. August will be the best operating window, the starting point of the autumn harvest market, don't fall before dawn! The general trend of the year is as follows:

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