Of course, the Fed still has a high probability of cutting interest rates this year, but it is likely to be in September or December. The Fed will wait until the US economic data becomes more apparently weaker, and when the demand slows down, it will release the loose signal. At present, it will take at least a few months for the Fed to observe.
So, if the Fed can't cut interest rates in July, what impact will it have on the market?
First: Unfriendly to non-Americans, the US will not cut interest rates will make global currency flows unable to spread on a large scale, which is not conducive to the bottoming out of non-US economies
Second: If the United States does not cut interest rates, the probability of China's interest rate cut will also cut interest rates. Of course, interest rate cuts will have a major positive impact on China’s economy and increase the bottom line of the economy. The interest rate will not fall, and the economy will continue to weaken.
Third: the expectations given by the previous market are too high, which may lead to expectations falling and falling.
Fourth: continue to drive down the market's risk appetite, the market's trading activity continues to decline, and the money-making effect will be scarce
The world is waiting for the Fed to save, and this time the United States itself has no crisis, so the Fed will definitely be cautious this time, and will drag on for a long time. Usually, after the economy continues to deteriorate to a certain extent, it will be rescued, just to prevent the crisis from spreading to the United States.
Therefore, the current problem of China's stock market is not external but internal. The Fed's interest rate cut will allow the central bank's monetary policy to continue to open up space, but the real reform measures will still be seen. Then, the next Politburo meeting to be held will replace the Fed’s interest rate resolution as the biggest event of the month and will directly determine the trend of the market in 2019.
Continue to maintain the original judgment: bearish the July market, it is expected to start to rebound into the trend rebound market on 7.29. August will be the best operating window, the starting point of the autumn harvest market, don't fall before dawn! The general trend of the year is as follows: